Home > Uncategorized > Peter Orszag: China’s Labor Trends And Their Impact On Its Economy – Business Insider

Peter Orszag: China’s Labor Trends And Their Impact On Its Economy – Business Insider

November 14, 2012 Leave a comment Go to comments

“The point at which moving workers from agriculture to manufacturing no longer leads to economic gains is called, in the literature of economic development, the Lewis turning point — after the Nobel-winning economist Arthur Lewis. If China is at or near its Lewis turning point, Xi will face an extraordinary economic challenge, with far-reaching geopolitical ramifications.

…The International Monetary Fund says that reality lies somewhere in the middle — that the Chinese economy will reach the Lewis turning point sometime between 2020 and 2025 — about the time when Xi’s term ends.

Even after that point has been reached, high growth is still possible — it will just be more difficult. Xi will face enormous political and economic difficulties. As my former colleague Larry Summers likes to put it, China represents a greatly leveraged bet on economic growth — and if growth is much harder to achieve, that bet may turn sour.”

via Peter Orszag: China’s Labor Trends And Their Impact On Its Economy – Business Insider.

Advertisements
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: