Peter Orszag: China’s Labor Trends And Their Impact On Its Economy – Business Insider
“The point at which moving workers from agriculture to manufacturing no longer leads to economic gains is called, in the literature of economic development, the Lewis turning point — after the Nobel-winning economist Arthur Lewis. If China is at or near its Lewis turning point, Xi will face an extraordinary economic challenge, with far-reaching geopolitical ramifications.
…The International Monetary Fund says that reality lies somewhere in the middle — that the Chinese economy will reach the Lewis turning point sometime between 2020 and 2025 — about the time when Xi’s term ends.
Even after that point has been reached, high growth is still possible — it will just be more difficult. Xi will face enormous political and economic difficulties. As my former colleague Larry Summers likes to put it, China represents a greatly leveraged bet on economic growth — and if growth is much harder to achieve, that bet may turn sour.”