Home > Uncategorized > IMF fears ‘credit shock’ in Spain if Rajoy blocks rescue – Telegraph

IMF fears ‘credit shock’ in Spain if Rajoy blocks rescue – Telegraph

October 13, 2012 Leave a comment Go to comments

The fund said sovereign debt woes were spilling into the broader Spanish economy, risking a “pernicious feedback loop” for private companies. The danger is another bout of capital flight combined with a “credit shock” as banks deleverage drastically to meet higher capital ratios.

Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said Madrid was courting fate by trying to muddle through without a bail-out – and without the tough terms it would bring – now that borrowing costs had fallen on hopes of bond purchases by the European Central Bank.

Mr Blanchard said investors had most likely anticipated a rescue by the ECB and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). “If so, we can’t be sure that yields will stay low for much longer,” he said.

The IMF said capital flight from Spain reached €296bn (£238bn) in the 12 months to June, or 27pc of GDP. It matches the intensity of “sudden stop” crises seen in emerging markets.

Banks in Spain, Italy, and the EMU fringe cannot easily make up the shortfall by turning to the ECB because they are short of usable collateral.

via IMF fears ‘credit shock’ in Spain if Rajoy blocks rescue – Telegraph.

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